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Rua Riachuelo, 366 Centro
Rio de janeiro - Brazil
9:00AM to 7:00 PM
Moday To Friday
+55 21 976 723 023
Contents
Imagine waking up to find that the price of eggs has doubled overnight. Grocery store shelves are emptier than usual. Countries are closing borders to U.S. poultry imports, and farmers are in panic. This isn’t a dystopian movie — it’s the reality unfolding across the United States due to a surge in avian flu outbreaks.
And here’s what no one is telling you: the ripple effects of this crisis may not stop at the U.S. borders. From your breakfast plate to the global food trade, the consequences could be enormous — and long-lasting.
In this article, we expose what’s really happening behind the scenes, the economic and sanitary consequences for the world, and why this could mark a turning point for global meat and poultry markets.
What is avian flu and how did the outbreak start?
What makes this wave different from previous ones?
Economic impacts on the U.S. and the global market
How Brazil and other exporters are affected
Strategic insights for importers and global food companies
The avian flu (bird flu) is caused by subtypes of the Influenza A virus — the most worrying being H5N1. These viruses mainly affect birds, but some strains can infect mammals and, in rare cases, humans.
Since late 2023, the U.S. has seen an alarming resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). By early 2025, over 80 million birds had been culled, including layers, turkeys, and even wild birds. But the real shock came when the virus jumped to dairy cows and was found in the milk supply, raising public health alarms.
This isn’t just an agricultural problem — it’s a global issue.
Unlike previous outbreaks limited to poultry farms, the current wave has reached dairy cattle and wild animals. Even more alarming, it has demonstrated the capacity for mutations, making scientists fear it could adapt to infect humans more easily.
Additionally:
Spread to multiple species
Cases of contaminated milk
Sharp increase in the price of eggs and poultry products
The CDC and USDA are on high alert. The world is watching.
The U.S. is one of the largest poultry exporters in the world. With massive losses in flocks and milk production compromised, the impact on prices, trade, and food security is already being felt:
Egg prices up 22% in Q1 2025
Milk production dropped in 7 affected states
Consumers paying more for chicken, turkey, and dairy
Several countries banned or restricted U.S. poultry imports
Increased demand for chicken from Brazil and Thailand
Disruption in global supply chains, especially in Asia and the Middle East
As the world looks for stable suppliers, Brazil stands out
While the U.S. deals with the chaos, Brazil is experiencing a surge in international demand. With strict sanitary controls and no outbreaks in commercial farms, the country became the world’s top poultry exporter in 2024.
According to Valor Econômico, Brazilian meat exports reached record highs last year — and 2025 is expected to break new records. However, vigilance is needed. Cases in wild birds were detected in states like Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil is walking a tightrope: on one hand, global opportunity; on the other, the threat of losing it all if the virus spreads domestically.
Governments and international companies are treating this as a short-term supply chain issue — but it goes deeper:
Public health risk: Potential for human-to-human transmission in the future
Trade disruption: New sanitary barriers, inspections, and export bans
Food inflation: Especially in countries dependent on U.S. or European suppliers
Opportunity for new players: Like Brazil, Argentina, and Southeast Asia
Ignoring this scenario is not an option for importers, retailers, and investors.
If you’re in the global food trade, especially poultry, eggs, or dairy, here are steps to take now:
Relying on the U.S. alone is risky. Establish relationships with certified suppliers in Brazil and Asia.
Follow updates from WHO, FAO, USDA, and national ministries.
Both exporters and importers must reinforce biosecurity measures to ensure continued market access.
The world is moving toward more regionalized supply chains. Build partnerships with countries that have a good track record in sanitary safety.
The avian flu explosion in the U.S. is not an isolated problem. It reveals how fragile and interconnected our food systems are. The virus may be invisible, but its consequences are not.
For countries like Brazil, this is a test of capacity and responsibility. For importers around the world, it’s a wake-up call to review strategies, contracts, and sources.
Because in a world where viruses travel faster than containers, foresight is no longer optional — it’s survival.
Avian flu is a highly contagious viral disease caused by Influenza A subtypes like H5N1. It mainly affects birds, but in rare cases, it can infect mammals and humans.
Because it’s not just affecting poultry. It has spread to wild birds and dairy cattle, raising fears of mutations and possible transmission to humans.
Yes, but rarely. Most human infections occur through direct contact with infected birds. There is currently no sustained human-to-human transmission, but mutations could change that.
Eggs, chicken, turkey, and milk. These have seen price increases and supply shortages in the U.S., which ripple across global markets.
Yes. While Brazil hasn’t had outbreaks in commercial farms, wild birds have tested positive. The country must maintain strict biosecurity to protect its export status.
Importers face higher costs and lower availability. Exporters from safe regions, like Brazil, are seeing a surge in demand and new trade opportunities.
Avoid contact with sick birds, buy certified animal products, and ensure food is cooked thoroughly. Properly cooked meat, eggs, and milk do not transmit the virus.
Article by Mell
Mello Commodity publishes educational articles that aim to guide importers of agricultural commodities on: Brazilian crops, market information, prices, scams, etc.
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Brazilian, graduated in Marketing, Specialist in Service Management and Strategic Communication.
Important International Negotiator in the commercialization of Brazilian agricultural commodities such as: Sugar, Soybeans and Corn.
Owner of Mello Commdity, she has gained great prominence on the internet in recent years by promoting educational articles for importers of Brazilian agricultural commodities.
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