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Rua Riachuelo, 366 Centro
Rio de janeiro - Brazil
9:00AM to 7:00 PM
Moday To Friday
+55 21 976 723 023
With the U.S. presidential elections approaching, the world is once again turning its attention to the strategies Donald Trump intends to implement if he returns to the White House. His economic plan for 2025 is not just a repeat of the past — it’s an intensified version of what he calls “America First,” combining economic nationalism, protectionist policies, and an aggressive international negotiation approach.
If Trump regains power, the global economic landscape may undergo significant changes, directly impacting markets, supply chains, and multilateral agreements.
Let’s break down the key elements of this new plan:
Contents
a) Economic Nationalism
Trump is bringing back the “America First” slogan, signaling a commitment to prioritizing U.S. economic interests, even if that means pulling out of multilateral agreements or creating friction with historical allies.
b) Economic Populism
These policies are framed as protective measures for American jobs and industries. This narrative reinforces Trump’s domestic political base, especially among industrial workers, farmers, and voters in manufacturing-heavy states (the Rust Belt).
c) Geopolitical Confrontation as Economic Tool
By targeting China, the European Union, and even Mexico, Trump uses tax and trade policies as tools of geopolitical pressure, positioning the U.S. in a place of strength to renegotiate trade deals in its favor.
a) Tariffs as Revenue Source
By imposing heavy tariffs on foreign products (such as cars and auto parts, up to 25%), the administration aims to increase federal revenue by over $250 billion in 2025 — funds that could help balance the budget or finance popular programs.
b) Controlled De-globalization
Trump is promoting a reshoring movement, encouraging American companies to shift manufacturing back to the U.S., strengthening domestic supply chains.
c) Rejection of Global Governance
His opposition to the OECD’s proposed global minimum tax reflects a strategy to maintain U.S. fiscal sovereignty, allowing the country to keep a more flexible and competitive tax policy compared to other nations.
a) Threat as a Bargaining Tool (Hard Power)
Trump uses high tariffs as an initial threat to force countries and trade blocs to the negotiation table — the classic “Art of the Deal” approach. He starts aggressively, then partially pulls back in exchange for trade and political concessions.
b) Divide and Conquer
By negotiating with countries individually rather than with entire blocs (e.g., putting pressure on Mexico or Canada separately rather than through NAFTA), Trump secures bilateral advantages more easily.
c) Maximizing Uncertainty
Trump operates with calculated unpredictability — markets and trade partners can’t anticipate his next move. This increases his leverage and gives him a psychological advantage in negotiations.
By imposing a 49% tariff on imports from certain countries, Trump significantly raises the entry cost for competitors in the U.S. market.
This sparks immediate retaliation (such as China’s 34% tariffs on U.S. products), but it also opens the door for forced renegotiations.
This way, the U.S. can pressure for revisions in agreements that benefit its trade balance and strategic sectors.
| OPPORTUNITIES | THREATS |
|---|---|
| Strengthening national industry through import substitution | Retaliation from trading partners such as China and the EU with tariffs that hurt American exporters |
| Increased tax revenue via tariffs on billions in imports | Volatility in financial markets and risk of recession with stagflation |
| renegotiate bilateral trade agreements | Rising costs for American consumers and businesses (inflationary effect) |
| Stimulating innovation and reshoring of strategic production chains | Diplomatic isolation and deterioration in multilateral relations |
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| Opportunities | Threats |
|---|
| Forcing market and trade route diversification, reducing dependence on the U.S. | Immediate loss of competitiveness in the U.S. due to price increases from tariffs of up to 49% |
| Boost to domestic industrialization and internal consumption as a response to external trade barriers | Drop in exports, directly affecting GDP and employment |
| Strengthening of alternative trade blocs (e.g., ASEAN, Mercosur, BRICS+) as a counterweight to the U.S. | Decreased attractiveness for foreign investment in sectors affected by U.S. tariffs |
| Reinforcement of regional value chains | Currency devaluation and macroeconomic instability in economies highly dependent on the U.S. market |
Donald Trump is playing a geopolitical chess game with fiscal pieces. The impact of his policies goes beyond the numbers: it affects alliances, makes products more expensive, repositions companies and transforms global trade routes.
While the US benefits from increased revenue and greater control over its industry, on the other hand, there are costs in diplomacy, stability and domestic inflation. The countries targeted by the tax are forced to reinvent themselves or risk losing essential markets and jobs.
Exporting companies must analyze risk scenarios and diversify target markets;
Investors need to map protected sectors in the US (automotive, steel, technology) and identify short-term opportunities;
Affected governments must react with strategic intelligence, seeking bilateral agreements, tax incentives and alternative coalitions.
DIVERSIFY BY EXPANDING ACCESS TO NEW SUPPLIERS – Access the guides of Brazilian Suppliers of Agricultural Commodities
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