Sugarcane in Brazil – Estimated Crop 2020/2021

Sugarcane harvest estimate 2020/21: Consultants reduce their forecasts for sugar cane

Persistent drought and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have had strong impacts on the production of Brazilian cane fields, and will likely influence the next season

The 2020/21 sugarcane harvest, which officially started on April 1, has already completed six months. This is also the time when Brazil is experiencing a completely atypical scenario: the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences for the population and the economy.

The progress of the season and the pandemic are closely linked. Initially, there was speculation about a possible delay in the start of the harvest due to the reduction in labor, caused by the isolation recommendations. Even if this did not happen, the lower circulation of people had a great influence on the fuel market and, consequently, on the production of sugarcane.

Since March, industry analysts have already pointed to a production mix more focused on sugar in 2020/21. From the coronavirus pandemic to the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, ethanol has been disadvantaged, consumption has fallen and returns to mills, too. The fixation of sugar for export, even more considering the expected deficit of the commodity worldwide, meant a boost for the sector, which, in general, can easily oscillate between the two products derived from sugarcane.

In six months of the harvest, these first estimates of the mix were reinforced. In the latest survey of novaCana, carried out in May with 18 companies and specialized companies, the average expectation was that 44.99% of the raw material would be destined for sugar – which represented an increase of more than 10 percentage points in relation to the 34 , 3% 2019/20, according to figures from the Sugarcane Industry Union (Unica).

In this survey, which ended on September 18, 16 companies believe that the average mix will be 46.4% for sugar, an increase of 1.4 percentage points in relation to May and 12.1 points in comparison with 2019 / 20.

At the same time that this scenario only reinforced itself over a semester of the harvest, the same did not happen with the projections for crushing. In May, the average expectation of industry analysts was that the season would end with 597.55 million tonnes ground, an increase of 1.22% over the final 590.36 million tonnes of 2019/20.

Now, the companies consulted by novaCana estimate an average crushing of 591.84 million tons by the end of the harvest, an increase of only 0.25% in relation to 2019/20 and a decrease of 0.95% in relation to the survey previous. And the reason is precisely a factor that was considered positive at the beginning of the year: the weather.

Source: https://www.novacana.com/n/cana/safra/estimativa-safra-2020-21-consultorias-reduzem-previsoes-cana-de-acucar-220920

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