R. Viconde de Pirajá, 414 - Ipanema
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R. Viconde de Pirajá, 414 - Ipanema
Rio de Janeiro - Brazil
9:00AM to 7:00 PM
Moday To Friday
+55 21 976 723 023
A produção recorde está criando novas oportunidades, mas também novos riscos. Veja como importadores experientes de soja, farelo de soja e óleo de soja devem se preparar para uma das temporadas de compras mais importantes dos últimos anos.
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Brazil is preparing to make history.
According to current market projections, the country is expected to harvest between 180 and 181 million metric tons of soybeans during the 2025/26 season, setting a new production record and reinforcing its position as the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter.
For many international buyers, the immediate reaction is almost automatic:
“More soybeans mean lower prices.”
It sounds logical.
After all, if supply increases dramatically, prices should naturally fall.
But international commodity markets rarely behave that simply.
Experienced importers know that record production is only one piece of a much larger puzzle. A larger crop may create additional export opportunities, yet it can also intensify competition for logistics, influence export premiums, strengthen domestic crushing demand and reshape procurement strategies throughout the marketing year.
In other words, producing more soybeans does not automatically make buying soybeans easier—or cheaper.
History has demonstrated this repeatedly. Several South American harvests have delivered outstanding production volumes while international buyers continued facing volatile prices, shipping delays or tighter export availability than initially expected.
Why?
Because soybean procurement is no longer driven by production alone.
Today’s importers operate in an increasingly interconnected market where weather patterns, exchange rates, ocean freight, biodiesel policies, Chinese purchasing activity and geopolitical developments can influence purchasing costs just as much as the harvest itself.
This is particularly true for companies importing whole soybeans, soybean meal or soybean oil, since each product follows its own market dynamics.
A record soybean harvest may increase the availability of soybeans while having a completely different impact on soybean meal exports or edible oil supply.
Understanding these differences is becoming a competitive advantage.
Companies that rely exclusively on production forecasts often make procurement decisions based on incomplete information. Those that analyze the broader market tend to identify opportunities earlier, reduce purchasing risks and negotiate from a stronger position.
That is precisely why the 2026 Brazilian soybean season deserves closer attention.
Behind the impressive production numbers lies a much more interesting story—one that every experienced importer should understand before negotiating the next shipment.
And it starts with a question that surprisingly few buyers ask:
How much of this record crop will actually be available to the international market?
On paper, Brazil’s soybean outlook for the 2025/26 season looks exceptional.
Current projections indicate production between 180 and 181 million metric tons, supported by an estimated planted area of approximately 49.1 million hectares. If confirmed, this will represent another milestone for Brazilian agriculture and further consolidate the country’s leadership in global soybean exports.
The numbers themselves are impressive.
But experienced importers know that production statistics only become meaningful when placed in the right commercial context.
The first point worth noting is that this growth has not been driven solely by expanding farmland. Brazilian producers have increasingly focused on improving productivity through precision agriculture, advanced seed genetics, better soil management and continuous investment in farming technology.
This distinction matters.
Productivity-led growth is generally more sustainable than simple land expansion, suggesting that Brazil’s soybean industry is becoming increasingly efficient rather than merely larger.
Interestingly, however, market expectations for the following production cycle already indicate a much more cautious approach.
Analysts expect soybean acreage expansion during the 2026/27 season to remain below 1%, reflecting concerns over production costs, market profitability and the potential effects of El Niño on weather conditions across South America.
For importers, this sends an important message.
The current record harvest should not necessarily be interpreted as the beginning of unlimited production growth. Instead, it may represent a period in which Brazilian agriculture shifts its focus from expanding acreage to maximizing productivity and improving operational efficiency.
Another factor deserves attention.
Although Brazil produces an extraordinary volume of soybeans, not every additional ton harvested becomes available for export.
Part of the crop is processed domestically into soybean meal and soybean oil. Another portion supplies Brazil’s rapidly growing livestock industry, food sector and biodiesel program.
As domestic consumption continues to expand, the relationship between production and export availability becomes increasingly complex.
This is why professional procurement teams rarely analyze harvest data in isolation.
They understand that the most important question is no longer “How much will Brazil produce?”
Instead, it becomes:
“How much of that production will compete for the international market—and when?”
The answer to that question could have a much greater impact on procurement costs than the record harvest itself.
And that leads us to one of the biggest misconceptions in international soybean trading:
Why record production does not necessarily translate into lower prices.
If international soybean markets were driven solely by supply and demand, procurement decisions would be remarkably simple.
A record harvest would inevitably lead to lower prices, buyers would simply wait for the market to decline, and purchasing strategies would become largely predictable.
Reality, however, is far more complex.
Experienced importers understand that soybean prices are shaped by a combination of agricultural, financial, logistical and geopolitical factors that often move in different directions at the same time.
This is exactly why two companies purchasing Brazilian soybeans on the same day can end up paying significantly different landed costs.
The difference is rarely explained by the size of the harvest alone.
Instead, it is determined by how well each buyer understands the variables behind the market.
For many importers, soybean pricing begins with the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
CBOT futures remain the global benchmark for soybean prices, reflecting expectations about supply, demand, weather conditions, investment flows and macroeconomic sentiment.
However, one common mistake among less experienced buyers is assuming that a decline in CBOT prices automatically creates a buying opportunity.
It doesn’t.
The futures market represents only one component of the final export price.
The actual cost of importing soybeans from South America depends on several additional variables that may move independently from Chicago.
Ignoring those variables can turn what appears to be an attractive purchase into a surprisingly expensive transaction.
One of the most important—and often underestimated—pricing factors is the export premium.
Export premiums reflect the additional value buyers are willing to pay above CBOT to secure physical soybeans from a specific origin.
When global demand is strong, export premiums tend to rise.
When demand weakens or supply becomes more comfortable, premiums usually decline.
This means that Brazilian soybeans can become more expensive even while CBOT prices are falling.
The opposite is equally possible.
Importers who monitor only futures prices often overlook this relationship and may enter the market at less competitive moments.
Professional procurement teams evaluate futures and export premiums together before making purchasing decisions.
Neither indicator tells the full story on its own.
Another variable capable of reshaping export prices is the Brazilian Real.
Since soybeans are internationally traded in U.S. dollars while production costs are largely incurred in Brazilian currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate directly influence producer selling behavior.
A stronger Brazilian Real may reduce farmers’ willingness to sell immediately, tightening short-term export availability.
Conversely, a weaker Real often encourages commercial activity by improving local profitability.
For international buyers, exchange rate movements can create procurement opportunities that have little to do with the harvest itself.
Understanding this relationship helps explain why export prices sometimes remain firm despite exceptionally large production volumes.
Brazilian, graduated in Marketing, Specialist in Service Management and Strategic Communication.
Important International Negotiator in the commercialization of Brazilian agricultural commodities such as: Sugar, Soybeans and Corn.
Owner of Mello Commdity, she has gained great prominence on the internet in recent years by promoting educational articles for importers of Brazilian agricultural commodities.
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