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R. Viconde de Pirajá, 414 - Ipanema
Rio de Janeiro - Brazil
9:00AM to 7:00 PM
Moday To Friday
+55 21 976 723 023
For many businesses, El Niño is simply another weather phenomenon reported in the news. For experienced importers, however, it represents something far more significant: the possibility of supply disruptions, unexpected price increases and greater uncertainty in international procurement. History has shown that the biggest challenges in global commodity markets rarely begin when harvests fail. They begin months earlier, when climate forecasts start influencing purchasing decisions, export policies and market expectations.
The projections for the 2026–2027 Super El Niño are already attracting the attention of governments, commodity analysts and multinational food companies around the world. Meteorological agencies continue to monitor the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while agricultural markets are evaluating how a strong event could affect some of the world’s most strategic producing regions. For importers of Brazilian sugar, coffee and soybeans, understanding these developments is no longer optional—it is an essential part of risk management.
But climate alone does not determine prices.
The real concern begins when adverse weather reduces production in multiple exporting countries at the same time. Lower harvests often translate into tighter global inventories, export restrictions, increased freight costs and stronger competition among international buyers. By the time these effects become visible in market prices, many experienced importers have already secured contracts, diversified suppliers and protected their supply chains.
That is precisely why the companies that consistently outperform their competitors tend to follow climate indicators months before planting and harvesting seasons reach their critical stages. They understand that successful procurement depends not only on finding competitive prices, but also on anticipating market movements before everyone else reacts.
This is particularly important in markets such as sugar, coffee and soybeans, where a relatively small number of producing countries are responsible for supplying a large portion of global demand. When climate events simultaneously affect Brazil, India, Thailand or Vietnam, the consequences quickly spread far beyond national borders, influencing international prices, export availability and delivery schedules across multiple continents.
The projected Super El Niño arrives at a time when global agricultural markets are already facing additional challenges. Higher production costs, geopolitical uncertainties, tighter inventories in several commodities and increasing pressure on global logistics have reduced the margin for unexpected disruptions. In this environment, climate risk becomes another variable capable of influencing purchasing strategies, contract negotiations and long-term supply planning.
For professional importers, the question is no longer whether climate events will affect international trade. The question is how prepared their organizations are to respond before the rest of the market does.
That distinction often separates companies that maintain stable supply chains from those forced to buy under pressure, paying higher prices for increasingly limited availability.
And this raises another important question.
If previous Super El Niño events significantly changed agricultural commodity markets, what exactly happened during those events—and what lessons can today’s importers learn before history repeats itself?
One of the most common mistakes made by inexperienced buyers is assuming that every climate event affects agricultural commodities in the same way. It does not. Every El Niño has its own intensity, duration and geographical footprint. However, when we examine the world’s three most recent major events, one pattern becomes remarkably clear: markets react long before production numbers are officially confirmed.
Professional importers understand that commodity prices are driven by expectations as much as by actual supply. As soon as weather models indicate a high probability of droughts, excessive rainfall or lower crop yields, traders, exporters and institutional investors begin adjusting their positions. By the time official production reports confirm a supply deficit, the market has often moved significantly.
For this reason, understanding what happened during previous Super El Niño events is not merely an academic exercise. It provides valuable insights into how international commodity markets are likely to behave if the projected 2026–2027 Super El Niño develops as many climatologists currently expect.
The Super El Niño of 1997–1998 was one of the strongest ever recorded. Severe droughts affected Southeast Asia and Australia, while intense rainfall caused widespread flooding across parts of South America. Agricultural production was disrupted in several regions simultaneously, highlighting how interconnected global food supply chains had become.
Nearly two decades later, the 2015–2016 Super El Niño produced another wave of significant disruptions. Once again, drought reduced agricultural output across India, Thailand and Vietnam, while parts of South America experienced unusually heavy rainfall. For global commodity markets, this event became a reminder that climate risk can quickly evolve into a supply chain risk.
More recently, the 2023–2024 El Niño demonstrated that even before a harvest is completed, governments and exporters may begin changing their commercial strategies. Export restrictions, tighter inventories and increased uncertainty encouraged many importers to secure supplies earlier than usual, contributing to additional price volatility.
Although no two climate events are identical, history consistently shows that markets respond first to uncertainty, and only later to confirmed production losses.
Among the world’s major agricultural commodities, sugar has historically been one of the most sensitive to strong El Niño events.
The reason lies in the structure of the global export market. While sugar is produced in many countries, only a handful consistently supply large volumes to international buyers. Brazil dominates global exports, while India and Thailand play critical roles in balancing international availability. When adverse weather simultaneously affects these producers, the consequences rapidly spread throughout the market.
During the 2015–2016 Super El Niño, drought significantly reduced sugarcane productivity in both India and Thailand. Lower rainfall weakened crop development, reducing production and limiting exportable surpluses. As governments prioritized domestic supply, international buyers increasingly turned to Brazil, intensifying competition for available cargoes.
The result was a sharp increase in international sugar prices. More importantly, however, experienced buyers recognized that the greatest challenge was not simply paying more for sugar—it was securing reliable supply while competitors were still searching for available sellers.
The same pattern emerged during the 2023–2024 El Niño. Lower rainfall again affected India’s sugar sector, while concerns over domestic food security encouraged authorities to maintain tighter control over exports. Thailand also experienced weather-related production challenges, further reducing global export availability.
For many importers, this combination reinforced an important lesson: when multiple exporting countries face simultaneous production risks, supply becomes more valuable than price alone.
Whenever production declines in competing exporting countries, Brazil naturally assumes an even more important role within the international sugar trade.
As the world’s largest sugar exporter, Brazilian mills often become the primary source of supply for buyers seeking to replace unavailable volumes from other origins. This increased demand strengthens Brazil’s position in global markets while also increasing pressure on logistics, freight capacity and export scheduling.
For international buyers, this means that waiting until shortages become evident can be an expensive strategy. By the time many companies begin looking for alternative suppliers, experienced importers have frequently secured production slots and established delivery schedules with trusted exporters.
This is precisely why supplier qualification becomes just as important as market timing. During periods of heightened uncertainty, companies with established relationships, verified supply networks and direct access to reliable exporters are generally in a stronger position to maintain business continuity.
But sugar is only part of the story.
While sugar markets often react first to climate concerns, the projected Super El Niño could simultaneously affect two other commodities that are fundamental to global food security and international trade: coffee and soybeans.
And unlike sugar, where production is concentrated in relatively few exporting countries, these markets present a different set of risks—some of which are even more complex for international buyers.
If sugar is often the first commodity to reflect climate uncertainty, coffee and soybeans reveal how widespread the consequences of a Super El Niño can become. Unlike sugar, where export availability is concentrated among a few countries, these two markets involve different production cycles, regional weather patterns and demand dynamics. Yet they share one critical characteristic: when climate disrupts supply, buyers who waited too long rarely have attractive alternatives.
For experienced importers, the objective is not simply to predict prices. It is to understand how climate may influence availability, quality, logistics and commercial decisions throughout the entire supply chain.
Coffee is one of the agricultural commodities most closely linked to weather conditions. Temperature, rainfall and humidity influence every stage of production, from flowering to bean development and final quality. Small climatic changes can reduce yields, alter cup profiles and delay harvests.
What makes the projected 2026–2027 Super El Niño particularly concerning is that it could affect the world’s two largest coffee producers simultaneously.
Brazil, responsible for nearly 40% of global coffee production and the largest exporter of Arabica, may experience prolonged heat waves, irregular rainfall and uneven flowering if climate forecasts materialize. These conditions do not necessarily create immediate crop failures, but they can reduce productivity and increase uncertainty regarding the final harvest size.
At the same time, Vietnam—the world’s leading producer of Robusta coffee—has historically experienced drought conditions during strong El Niño events. Lower reservoir levels, reduced irrigation capacity and water stress have previously limited Robusta production, tightening global supplies.
When both Arabica and Robusta become vulnerable during the same production cycle, international markets tend to react quickly. Roasters begin adjusting purchasing strategies, traders reassess inventory positions and exporters become increasingly selective regarding forward commitments.
For importers, the biggest risk is not necessarily an immediate shortage of coffee. The greater challenge is navigating a market where quality premiums widen, inventories tighten and reliable suppliers become more difficult to secure.
Soybeans respond differently to El Niño because weather impacts vary considerably across producing regions. Unlike sugar or coffee, where drought is often the dominant concern, soybean production can suffer from both insufficient and excessive rainfall depending on location.
Brazil, now the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, illustrates this complexity perfectly.
In the country’s Central-West region, delayed rainfall can postpone planting, reduce yield potential and shorten the growing window for the second crop. In southern states, however, stronger El Niño conditions often increase rainfall, creating entirely different challenges such as disease pressure, harvesting delays and logistical bottlenecks.
Meanwhile, Argentina may benefit from improved rainfall during certain El Niño years, partially offsetting losses elsewhere in South America. The United States also experiences regional impacts that vary depending on seasonal weather patterns.
This explains why soybean markets rarely react to climate headlines alone. Instead, buyers closely monitor satellite imagery, crop conditions, planting progress and weekly weather updates before adjusting procurement strategies.
Yet one factor consistently amplifies market sensitivity: China.
As the world’s largest soybean importer, China purchases well over half of all soybeans traded internationally. Even relatively small reductions in South American export availability can significantly increase competition for cargoes, influencing international prices and freight markets.
For companies that depend on soybean imports for animal feed, vegetable oil production or food manufacturing, supply planning becomes increasingly important as weather uncertainty grows.
One of the clearest differences between experienced importers and inexperienced buyers is the type of questions they ask.
Rather than focusing exclusively on today’s market price, procurement professionals evaluate the broader risks that may affect supply over the coming months.
During a potential Super El Niño, these questions become particularly relevant:
These questions explain why experienced importers rarely wait for newspaper headlines announcing a supply shortage. By then, markets have often adjusted, and purchasing flexibility has already been reduced.
Instead, professional procurement teams continuously evaluate weather forecasts, production reports, export policies and inventory levels to make informed decisions before uncertainty becomes fully reflected in prices.
But even the best market intelligence has limits.
Knowing that risks are increasing is only part of the equation. The next—and perhaps most important—step is ensuring that your supply chain is supported by partners capable of delivering when markets become more challenging.
That is where supplier selection becomes one of the most critical strategic decisions an importer can make.
By the time supply shortages dominate industry headlines, the biggest opportunities have usually disappeared. Prices have already adjusted, freight rates have become more expensive, exporters are prioritizing long-term customers, and governments may even be considering measures to protect domestic markets.
Professional importers understand that successful procurement is not based on reacting to uncertainty—it is based on preparing for it. Climate events such as a Super El Niño do not create risk overnight; they gradually increase it. Companies that recognize those signals early are generally better positioned to secure supply, negotiate favorable commercial terms and maintain business continuity while competitors struggle to adapt.
This is why experienced procurement teams develop sourcing strategies long before markets become volatile. Rather than relying on a single supplier or waiting for prices to reach their lowest point, they focus on building resilient supply chains capable of withstanding unexpected disruptions.
Although every company has its own procurement model, successful importers tend to follow several common principles during periods of heightened climate uncertainty.
First, they diversify supply sources. Depending exclusively on one exporter, one producing region or one harvest period increases exposure to unforeseen events. Diversification creates flexibility when weather conditions affect specific origins.
Second, they monitor market intelligence continuously. Weather forecasts, crop development reports, export policies and logistics indicators often provide valuable signals months before official production data is released. Access to reliable information allows companies to anticipate market movements rather than react to them.
Third, they prioritize supplier reliability over short-term price advantages. During periods of abundant supply, many companies appear competitive. During supply disruptions, however, the true difference lies in execution. The ability to honor contracts, maintain communication and deliver according to agreed schedules becomes significantly more valuable than marginal price differences.
Fourth, they plan purchases strategically instead of emotionally. Attempting to perfectly time the market rarely produces consistent results. Structured procurement programs, combined with disciplined purchasing decisions, generally reduce exposure to sudden price swings.
Finally, they work with partners capable of verifying supply capacity, commercial documentation and operational readiness before negotiations advance. This reduces unnecessary risks and improves confidence throughout the transaction.
These principles explain why experienced importers often navigate volatile markets with greater stability than companies entering international trade for the first time.
Whenever global supply tightens, the number of unreliable offers circulating in the market tends to increase dramatically.
International buyers frequently encounter unrealistic prices, unverifiable suppliers, unauthorized intermediaries and commercial proposals that cannot withstand even basic due diligence. In many cases, these offers consume valuable time while genuine suppliers become increasingly committed to qualified buyers.
For this reason, professional procurement is no longer limited to comparing quotations. It also involves evaluating whether a supplier has demonstrated export capability, consistent commercial performance and access to reliable production capacity.
Companies with established sourcing structures are generally better equipped to identify credible opportunities, reduce operational uncertainty and facilitate negotiations between qualified buyers and reputable exporters.
At Mello Commodity, we understand that importing agricultural commodities involves much more than negotiating prices. It requires confidence, transparency and careful commercial coordination throughout every stage of the sourcing process.
Our role is to help qualified international buyers access reliable sourcing opportunities across Latin America by working with carefully selected exporters capable of supporting international operations involving sugar, coffee and soybeans.
Rather than promoting speculative offers or unrealistic commercial conditions, we focus on facilitating structured procurement processes designed to reduce unnecessary risks and improve decision-making for serious importers.
Our commercial approach is built upon four fundamental principles:
This approach allows our clients to make procurement decisions supported by market knowledge instead of uncertainty.
Mello Commodity serves qualified companies involved in legitimate international trade.
Our services are designed for:
To ensure efficient use of resources and protect the integrity of every transaction, we do not engage in speculative negotiations, chain intermediaries, mandate structures or exploratory inquiries from organizations without demonstrated import capacity.
This qualification process enables our team to dedicate its expertise to companies that are genuinely prepared to conduct international commodity transactions.
Every major Super El Niño has reinforced the same lesson: companies that prepare early generally enjoy greater purchasing flexibility than those forced to react after uncertainty has already influenced prices and availability.
Whether the projected 2026–2027 Super El Niño ultimately reaches historic proportions or develops with moderate intensity, one fact remains unchanged. Climate uncertainty influences procurement decisions long before its full agricultural impact becomes visible.
For international buyers, preparation is no longer a competitive advantage—it is becoming an operational necessity.
Understanding production trends, monitoring export availability and building relationships with reliable sourcing partners can significantly strengthen procurement strategies in increasingly volatile markets.
If your company is actively importing—or preparing to import—Brazilian sugar, coffee or soybeans, now is the ideal time to review your sourcing strategy before market conditions become more challenging.
Mello Commodity offers an Import Eligibility Assessment for qualified companies seeking reliable sourcing solutions in Latin America.
During this assessment, our team evaluates your procurement requirements, discusses current market conditions and identifies sourcing opportunities aligned with your commercial objectives.
If your organization values supply security, transparency and long-term commercial partnerships, we invite you to schedule a confidential meeting with our international sales team.
Together, we can help you build a procurement strategy designed not only for today’s market—but for the challenges that tomorrow may bring.
Although no forecast can guarantee future prices, strong El Niño events have historically reduced production in key exporting countries such as India and Thailand, increasing the probability of tighter supply and greater market volatility.
Sugar, coffee and soybeans are among the agricultural commodities most sensitive to changes in rainfall, temperature and growing conditions, particularly in major producing countries.
Climate models provide early signals that may influence production, exports and inventories months before official harvest data becomes available, allowing companies to make more informed procurement decisions.
Every procurement strategy depends on a company’s commercial objectives and risk tolerance. However, many experienced importers review sourcing plans early whenever climate uncertainty increases.
Periods of market uncertainty often attract speculative offers and unreliable suppliers. Working with qualified sourcing partners helps reduce commercial and operational risks.
Mello Commodity assists qualified importers by facilitating structured sourcing opportunities for Brazilian sugar, coffee and soybeans through carefully selected exporters across Latin America.
Brazilian, graduated in Marketing, Specialist in Service Management and Strategic Communication.
Important International Negotiator in the commercialization of Brazilian agricultural commodities such as: Sugar, Soybeans and Corn.
Owner of Mello Commdity, she has gained great prominence on the internet in recent years by promoting educational articles for importers of Brazilian agricultural commodities.
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